How to Judge the Impact of the Next Economic Slowdown on Housing

How to Judge the Impact of the Next Economic Slowdown on Housing | Simplifying The Market

We’ve experienced economic growth for almost a decade, which is the longest recovery in the nation’s history. Experts know a recession can’t be too far off, but when will this economic slowdown actually occur?

Pulsenomics just released a special report revealing that nearly 6 out of 10 of the 90 economists, investment strategists, and market analysts surveyed believe the next recession will occur by the end of next year. Here’s the breakdown:

  • 9% believe a recession will occur this year
  • 50% believe it will occur in 2020
  • 35% believe it will occur in 2021
  • 6% believe it will occur after 2021

When asked what would trigger the next recession, the three most common responses by those surveyed were:

  1. Trade Policy
  2. Stock Market Correction
  3. Geopolitical Crisis

How might the recession impact real estate?

Challenges in the housing and mortgage markets were major triggers of the last recession. However, a housing slowdown ranked #9 on the list of potential triggers for the next recession, behind such possibilities as fiscal policy and political gridlock.

As far as the impact the recession may have on home values, the experts surveyed indicated home prices would continue to appreciate over the next few years. They called for a 4.1% appreciation rate this year, 2.8% in 2020, and 2.5% in 2021.

Bottom Line

On the same day, in the same survey, the same experts who forecasted a recession happening within the next 18 months also claimed housing will not be the trigger, and home values will still continue to appreciate.

Content previously posted on Keeping Current Matters

About the Author
Richard Wamsat is an author, a deep thinker, and master of home sales. He lives in Irvine, California with his wife Brandy and a fluffy white dog named Murphy. His knowledge of real estate spans two decades having purchased his first home at the age of 19. He has worked in both Northern California and Southern California markets and has fought with banks to save client's homes or get relief from underwater mortgages during the Great Recession. Richard is a licensed real estate agent with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage - CalRE#01345167. He has earned the designation of Master Certified Negotiation Expert from The Real Estate Negotiation Institute, a member of the Harvard Program on Negotiation. Connect with Richard on Twitter @rwamsat, or on his website https://ocluxehomes.com