Is a Recession Here? Yes. Does that Mean a Housing Crash? No.

By Keeping Current Articles June 10, 2020
Umbrella

On Monday, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) announced that the U.S. economy is officially in a recession. This did not come as a surprise to many, as the Bureau defines a recession this way:

“A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, normally visible in production, employment, and other indicators. A recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of economic activity and ends when the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion.”

Everyone realizes that the pandemic shut down the country earlier this year, causing a “significant decline in economic activity.”

Though not surprising, headlines announcing the country is in a recession will cause consumers to remember the devastating impact the last recession had on the housing market just over a decade ago.

The real estate market, however, is in a totally different position than it was then. As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, explained:

“Many still bear scars from the Great Recession and may expect the housing market to follow a similar trajectory in response to the coronavirus outbreak. But, there are distinct differences that indicate the housing market may follow a much different path. While housing led the recession in 2008-2009, this time it may be poised to bring us out of it.”

Four major differences in today’s real estate market are:

  1. Families have large sums of equity in their homes
  2. We have a shortage of housing inventory, not an overabundance
  3. Irresponsible lending no longer exists
  4. Home price appreciation is not out of control

We must also realize that a recession does not mean a housing crash will follow.  In three of the four previous recessions prior to 2008, home values increased. In the other one, home prices depreciated by only 1.9%.

Bottom Line

Yes, we are now officially in a recession. However, unlike 2008, this time the housing industry is in much better shape to weather the storm.

Content previously posted on Keeping Current Matters

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About the Author
Richard Wamsat
Richard Wamsat
Richard Wamsat is a Broker Associate and REALTOR with Coldwell Banker Realty in Irvine, California (CalDRE #01345167). Since 2002, Richard has represented clients throughout California in all price ranges, from first time homebuyers purchasing their first condo to seasoned investors buying and selling higher end properties. His current focus is on helping buyers and sellers in Orange County.

Richard bought his first home at nineteen and has worked in both Northern and Southern California markets, including the difficult years of the Great Recession when he negotiated with banks to help homeowners avoid foreclosure or get relief from underwater mortgages. That experience, combined with hundreds of successful closings since, gives his clients a practical understanding of how deals really get done in changing markets.

Committed to professional negotiation, Richard earned the Master Certified Negotiation Expert (MCNE) designation from the Real Estate Negotiation Institute, a member of the Harvard Program on Negotiation, along with additional credentials such as CNE, AHWD, CDPE, and SFR. Fewer than one percent of agents nationwide have achieved the MCNE designation, and Richard uses that training to structure offers, counteroffers, and terms that protect his clients’ interests without overpromising or relying on gimmicks.

Richard lives in Irvine with his wife, Brandy, and their fluffy white dog, Murphy. When you hire him, you get a calm, data driven advisor who takes the time to explain your options, walk you through the numbers, and help you make confident decisions about buying or selling a home in Orange County.