The Beginning of an Economic Recovery

The news these days seems to have a mix of highs and lows. We may hear that an economic recovery is starting, but we’ve also seen some of the worst economic data in the history of our country. The challenge today is to understand exactly what’s going on and what it means relative to the road ahead. We’ve talked before about what experts expect in the second half of this year, and today that progress largely hinges upon the continued course of the virus.

A recent Wall Street Journal survey of economists noted, “A strong economic recovery depends on effective and sustained containment of Covid-19.” Given the uncertainty around the virus, we can also see what economists are forecasting for GDP in the third quarter of this year (see graph below):The Beginning of an Economic Recovery | Simplifying The MarketOverwhelmingly, economists are projecting GDP growth in the third quarter of 2020, with 5 of the 9 experts indicating over 20% growth.

Lisa Shalett, Chief Investment Officer for Morgan Stanley puts it this way:

“Indeed, the ‘worst ever’ GDP reading could be followed by the ‘best ever’ growth in the third quarter.”

As we look forward, we can expect consumer spending to improve as well. According to Opportunity Insights, as of August 1, consumer spending was down just 7.8% as compared to January 1 of this year.

Bottom Line

An economic recovery is beginning to happen throughout the country. While there are still questions that need to be answered about the road ahead, we can expect to see improvement this quarter.

Content previously posted on Keeping Current Matters

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About the Author
Richard Wamsat is an author, a deep thinker, and master of home sales. He lives in Irvine, California with his wife Brandy and a fluffy white dog named Murphy. His knowledge of real estate spans two decades having purchased his first home at the age of 19. He has worked in both Northern California and Southern California markets and has fought with banks to save client's homes or get relief from underwater mortgages during the Great Recession. Richard is a licensed real estate agent with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage - CalRE#01345167. He has earned the designation of Master Certified Negotiation Expert from The Real Estate Negotiation Institute, a member of the Harvard Program on Negotiation. Connect with Richard on Twitter @rwamsat, or on his website https://ocluxehomes.com